AFTER2°C

Key Sources

Peer-Reviewed Sources

Browse the complete bibliography 65 sources
  1. Abualnaja, Yasser, et al. “The Growing Threat of Spatially Synchronized Dry-Hot Events to Global Ecosystem Productivity.” Communications Earth & Environment 7:1 (2026): 178.
  2. Anderson, Weston, et al. “Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 331 (2023): 109321.
  3. Asutosh, A., Simone Tilmes, Ewa M. Bednarz, and Suvarna Fadnavis. “South Asian Summer Monsoon under Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention.” Climate and Atmospheric Science 8:1 (2025).
  4. Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory (ACOM). “Effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention (SAI) on Ozone.” In ACOM Laboratory Annual Report 2021. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2021.
  5. Bahlmann, Jonas, et al. “Climate action in space: A sustainable development framework for sunshades at Sun-Earth Lagrange Point 1.” Advances in Space Research 77 (2025): 10972-11000.
  6. Baker, J. A., M. J. Bell, L. C. Jackson, G. K. Vallis, A. J. Watson, and R. A. Wood. “Continued Atlantic Overturning Circulation Even under Climate Extremes.” Nature 638 (2025): 987-994.
  7. Bednarz, Ewa M., et al. "Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice Recovery to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Latitude." Climate and Atmospheric Science 8:1 (2025): 24.
  8. Ben-Yami, Maya, Peter Good, Laura C. Jackson, Michel Crucifix, Aixue Hu, Oleg Saenko, Didier Swingedouw, and Niklas Boers. “Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison.” Earth’s Future 12:9 (2024): e2023EF003959.
  9. Berchin, Issa Ibrahim, Isabela Blasi Valduga, Jéssica Garcia, and José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório De Andrade. “Climate Change and Forced Migrations: An Effort Towards Recognizing Climate Refugees.” Geoforum 84 (2017): 147–150.
  10. Bevacqua, Emanuele, Erich Fischer, Jana Sillmann, and Jakob Zscheischler. “Moderate Global Warming Does Not Rule Out Extreme Global Climate Outcomes.” Nature 651 (2026): 946-953.
  11. Bonou, F., C. Y. Da-Allada, E. Baloitcha, E. Alamou, E. I. Biao, J. Zandagba, et al. "Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols Impacts on West African Monsoon Precipitation Using GeoMIP Models." Earth's Future 11 (2023): e2023EF003779.
  12. Bozec, Yves-Marie, Arne A. S. Adam, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, et al. “A Rapidly Closing Window for Coral Persistence under Global Warming.” Nature Communications 16 (2025): 9704. doi:10.1038/s41467-025-65015-4
  13. Carlson, Colin J., Cole B. Brookson, Daniel J. Becker, Caroline A. Cummings, Rory Gibb, Fletcher W. Halliday, Alexis M. Heckley, et al. “Pathogens and Planetary Change.” Nature Reviews Biodiversity 1 (2025): 32-49.
  14. Cinner, Joshua E., Iain R. Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, et al. “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Fisheries Production in 72 Tropical Coastal Communities.” Nature Communications 13 (2022): 3530.
  15. Contzen, N., G. Perlaviciute, L. Steg, et al. “Public Opinion about Solar Radiation Management: A Cross-Cultural Study in 20 Countries around the World.” Climatic Change 177 (2024): 65.
  16. Cordero, Raúl R., Sarah Feron, Alessandro Damiani, Shelley MacDonell, Jorge Carrasco, Jaime Pizarro, Cyrus Karas, et al. “Rapid Decline in Extratropical Andean Snow Cover Driven by the Poleward Migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies.” Scientific Reports 14 (2024): 26365.
  17. DeConto, Robert M., David Pollard, Richard B. Alley, Isabella Velicogna, Edward Gasson, Natalya Gomez, Shaina Sadai, et al. “The Paris Climate Agreement and Future Sea-Level Rise from Antarctica.” Nature 593 (2021): 83–89.
  18. Ditlevsen, Peter, and Susanne Ditlevsen. “Warning of a Forthcoming Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.” Nature Communications 14 (2023): 4254.
  19. Fadnavis, Suvarna, et al. "South Asian Summer Monsoon under Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention." Climate and Atmospheric Science 8:1 (2025): 3.
  20. Feingold, Graham, Virendra P. Ghate, Lynn M. Russell, Peter N. Blossey, Will Cantrell, Matthew W. Christensen, Michael S. Diamond, et al. “Physical Science Research Needed to Evaluate the Viability and Risks of Marine Cloud Brightening.” Science Advances 10:12 (2024): eadi8594.
  21. Flores, Bernardo M., Encarni Montoya, Boris Sakschewski, Nathália Nascimento, Arie Staal, Richard A. Betts, Carolina Levis, et al. “Critical Transitions in the Amazon Forest System.” Nature 626 (2024): 555–64.
  22. Fu, Weijie, Yue Xu, Chenguang Tian, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo. “Unequal Socioeconomic Exposure to Drought Extremes Induced by Stratospheric Aerosol Injection.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 25:20 (2025): 13103–13121.
  23. Gaupp, Franziska, et al. “Changing Risks of Simultaneous Global Breadbasket Failure.” Nature Climate Change 10:1 (2020): 54–57.
  24. Gaupp, Franziska, et al. “Increasing Risks of Multiple Breadbasket Failure under 1.5 and 2°C Global Warming.” Agricultural Systems 175 (2019): 34–45.
  25. Hasegawa, Toshihiro, Hitomi Wakatsuki, and Gerald C. Nelson. “Evidence for and Projection of Multi-Breadbasket Failure Caused by Climate Change.” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 58 (2022): 101217.
  26. Hausfather, Zeke. “An Assessment of Current Policy Scenarios over the 21st Century and the Reduced Plausibility of High-Emissions Pathways.” Dialogues on Climate Change 2:1 (2025): 26–32.
  27. Hofmann, David J., and Susan Solomon. “Ozone Destruction through Heterogeneous Chemistry Following the Eruption of El Chichón.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 94:D4 (1989): 5029–5041.
  28. Irvine, Peter J., and David W. Keith. “Halving Warming with Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Moderates Policy-Relevant Climate Hazards.” Environmental Research Letters (2020).
  29. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019.
  30. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021.
  31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022.
  32. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Edited by Hoesung Lee and José Romero. Geneva: IPCC, 2023.
  33. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Bonn: IPBES Secretariat, 2019.
  34. Jasechko, Scott, Hansjörg Seybold, Debra Perrone, Ying Fan, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Richard G. Taylor, Othman Fallatah, and James W. Kirchner. “Rapid Groundwater Decline and Some Cases of Recovery in Aquifers Globally.” Nature 625 (2024): 715–21.
  35. Knutson, Thomas, Suzana J. Camargo, Johnny C. L. Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Chang-Hoi Ho, James Kossin, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, et al. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 3 (2020): E303–E322.
  36. Kopp, Robert E., Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Rachael L. Shwom, Helen Adams, Carolina Adler, Michael Oppenheimer, Anand Patwardhan, Chris Russill, Daniela N. Schmidt, and Richard York. “‘Tipping Points’ Confuse and Can Distract from Urgent Climate Action.” Nature Climate Change 15:1 (2025): 29–36
  37. Kornhuber, Kai, et al. “Amplified Rossby Waves Enhance Risk of Concurrent Heatwaves in Major Breadbasket Regions.” Nature Climate Change 10:1 (2020): 48–53.
  38. Kornhuber, Kai, Corey Lesk, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jonas Jägermeyr, Peter Pfleiderer, and Radley M. Horton. “Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections.” Nature Communications 14 (2023): 3528.
  39. Li, Jun, Yao Zhang, Philippe Ciais, Hongying Zhang, Zhaoli Wang, Hongwu Tang, and Shilong Piao. “Enhanced Response of Extreme Compound Events to Cumulative CO₂ Emissions.” Nature 654:8117 (2026): 100–106.
  40. Liu, Z., X. Lang, and D. Jiang. “Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering Would Mitigate Greenhouse Gas-Induced Drying and Affect Global Drought Patterns.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2023).
  41. McLaren, Duncan. “Mitigation Deterrence and the ‘Moral Hazard’ of Solar Radiation Management.” Earth’s Future 4:12 (2016): 596–602.
  42. Möller, Tessa, Annika E. Högner, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, et al. “Achieving Net Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Critical to Limit Climate Tipping Risks.” Nature Communications 15 (2024): 6192. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
  43. Moreno-Cruz, Juan B. “Mitigation and the Geoengineering Threat.” Resource and Energy Economics 41 (2015).
  44. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2021.
  45. Paine, Alice R., James UL Baldini, Charlie L. Rex, Michael Sigl, Francesco SR Pausata, and Richard J. Brown. “Evidence for volcanic forcing of Holocene cold events.” Nature Communications 17 (2026).
  46. Parker, Andy, and Peter J. Irvine. “The Risk of Termination Shock from Solar Geoengineering.” Earth’s Future 6:3 (2018): 456–67.
  47. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Catherine H. Gregory, Jennifer K. Vanos, et al. “Deadly Heat Stress Conditions Are Already Occurring.” Nature Communications 17 (2026): 2590.
  48. Perry, Chris T., Didier M. de Bakker, Alice E. Webb, et al. “Reduced Atlantic Reef Growth past 2°C Warming Amplifies Sea-Level Impacts.” Nature 646 (2025): 619-626.
  49. Plowright, Raina K., Aliyu N. Ahmed, Tim Coulson, et al. “Ecological Countermeasures to Prevent Pathogen Spillover and Subsequent Pandemics.” Nature Communications 15 (2024): 2577.
  50. Poore, Joseph, and Thomas Nemecek. “Reducing Food’s Environmental Impacts through Producers and Consumers.” Science 360:6392 (2018): 987–92.
  51. Qing, Yamin, and Shuo Wang. "Soil Drying Intensification Increases the Connection Between Dry and Hot Extremes in a Changing Climate." Earth's Future 13:5 (2025).
  52. Quagraine, Kwesi A., et. al. "Assessing the Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Precipitation Extremes in Africa Using the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Dataset." Environmental Research: Climate 4:3 (2025): 035006.
  53. Rantanen, Mika, et al. “The Arctic Has Warmed Nearly Four Times Faster than the Globe since 1979.” Communications Earth & Environment 3:1 (2022): 168.
  54. Saavedra, Freddy, Ana Hernández-Duarte, Alexis Caro, et al. “Spatial and Temporal Variability of Snow in the Andes Using MODIS Snow Product 2000-2025.” Frontiers in Earth Science 14 (2026): 1564035.
  55. Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Gaurav Ganti, Quentin Lejeune, Biqing Zhu, Peter Pfleiderer, Ruben Prütz, Philippe Ciais, et al. “Overconfidence in Climate Overshoot.” Nature 634 (2024): 366–73.
  56. Schuur, Edward A. G., A. D. McGuire, Christina Schädel, Guido Grosse, Jennifer W. Harden, D. J. Hayes, Gustaf Hugelius, et al. “Climate Change and the Permafrost Carbon Feedback.” Nature 520 (2015): 171–79.
  57. Sie, Amanda, et al. “Geoengineering Prioritization: A Study of a Proposed Expression of Mitigation Deterrence.” Climatic Change 178:194 (2025).
  58. Surprise, Kevin, et al. “Profit-Seeking Solar Geoengineering Exemplifies Broader Risks of Market-Based Climate Governance.” Earth System Governance 23 (2025).
  59. Tang, Aaron, and Luke Kemp. "A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk." Frontiers in Climate 3 (2021): 720312.
  60. Tilmes, Simone, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Anne S. Glanville, Daniele Visioni, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Rolf Müller. “Sensitivity of Total Column Ozone to Stratospheric Sulfur Injection Strategies.” Geophysical Research Letters 48:19 (2021): e2021GL094058.
  61. Trenberth, Kevin E., and Aiguo Dai. “Effects of Mount Pinatubo Volcanic Eruption on the Hydrological Cycle as an Analog of Geoengineering.” Geophysical Research Letters 34, no. 15 (2007).
  62. Vanos, Jennifer, Gisel Guzman-Echavarria, Jane W. Baldwin, Coen Bongers, Kristie L. Ebi, and Ollie Jay. “A Physiological Approach for Assessing Human Survivability and Liveability to Heat in a Changing Climate.” Nature Communications 14 (2023): 7653.
  63. Vattioni, S., T. Peter, R. Weber, et al. “Injecting Solid Particles into the Stratosphere Could Mitigate Global Warming but Currently Entails Great Uncertainties.” Communications Earth & Environment 6 (2025): 132.
  64. Walter Anthony, Katey, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Ingmar Nitze, et al. “21st-Century Modeled Permafrost Carbon Emissions Accelerated by Abrupt Thaw beneath Lakes.” Nature Communications 9 (2018): 3262.
  65. Wunderling, Nico, Ricarda Winkelmann, Johan Rockström, Sina Loriani, David Armstrong McKay, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Boris Sakschewski, and Jonathan F. Donges. “Global Warming Overshoots Increase Risks of Climate Tipping Cascades in a Network of Interacting Components.” Nature Climate Change 13 (2023): 75-82.

Online Guides

  1. Carbon Brief. “The Impacts of Climate Change at 1.5°C, 2°C and Beyond.” Accessed April 22, 2026.
  2. Hausfather, Zeke. "Analysis: When Might the World Exceed 1.5C and 2C of Global Warming?" Carbon Brief. Accessed July 28, 2026.
  3. Igini, Martina. "Explainer: The Tipping Points of Climate Change." Earth.Org. Accessed July 29, 2026.
  4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “WGI Interactive Atlas.” Accessed April 22, 2026.
  5. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. “Ice Sheets.” NASA Science. Accessed April 27, 2026.
  6. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. “IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool.” NASA Sea Level Change Portal. Accessed April 27, 2026.
  7. The Ocean Agency. “Ocean Acidification Toolkit.” Accessed April 22, 2026.

Visual Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “WGI Interactive Atlas.” Accessed August 10, 2026. interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch ↗
  2. Historical visualization based on Ed Hawkins’ “Warming Stripes”; source image: Climate Central / UK Met Office.